2017 U.S. Senate special election: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 14:47, 10 November 2017

The 2017 U.S. Senate special election was a statewide special election held in order to fill the seat left vacant by Jeff Sessions' appointment as Attorney General of the United States in January 2017.

When he appointed Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange to the vacant seat, Governor Robert Bentley announced that no special election would be held prior to the scheduled November 2018 general election. State Auditor Jim Zeigler and retired District Attorney Tommy Chapman filed a lawsuit against Bentley arguing that the State Constitution required a special election to be held "forthwith," and that 21 months did not meet that requirement.

After Bentley pleaded guilty to crimes relating to his use of campaign funds he was removed from office and succeeded by Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey. After some deliberation, she decided to schedule a special election for the earliest practical date. The Alabama State Finance Director estimated the cost of holding the elections at $15 million, spread over two fiscal years.

Party primaries were held on August 15, Statewide turnout for the primary was 18%. In Jefferson County, turnout was closer to 20%, with 21% of Shelby County voters appearing at the polls. In Walker County a sales tax referendum also appeared on the ballot on August 15. A Republican runoff between Roy Moore and Luther Strange was held on September 26. Moore won that ballot by a nearly ten point margin.

The special election between the Democratic and Republican candidates will take place on December 12.

Primaries

Democratic

Republican

General election

Campaign

The Mid Alabama Republican Club hosted candidate forums at the Vestavia Hills Public Library on June 10 and July 8. Beretta, Brinson, Brooks, Gentile and Pittman participated in the first event, while Moore failed to appear. Moore did attend the second event, along with Strange, Peeples and Maxwell.

A poll of 500 likely Republican primary voters conducted on July 20-21 by Cygnal indicated that Strange was a heavy favorite with support from 33% of those polled, followed by Moore with 26% and Brooks with 16%. The private poll, commissioned by eight large businesses and associations, was released by Politico. A broader poll, conducted on July 24 by Raycom News Network and Strategy Research, reached 3,000 registered voters and recorded the responses of those saying they were likely to vote. Among those likely to vote in the Republican primary, 35% supported Strange, 33% supported Moore, and 16% supported Brooks. Of those saying they would vote in the Democratic primary, 49% expressed support for Kennedy and 28% for Jones.

An August 7 statewide telephone poll of 2,000 respondents was conducted by WALA-10 (Mobile) and Strategy Research. It indicated that Moore had support from 35% of Republican voters, followed by Strange (29%), Brooks (19%), Pittman (9%) and Maxwell (4%). Among Democratic voters, Kennedy polled at 40%, followed by Jones (30%), Boyd (9%) and Hansen (7%).

President Donald Trump tweeted his "complete and total endorsement" of Strange on August 8. A telephone poll of 502 Republican voters conducted on August 8-9 by Cygnal found that 31 percent would vote for Moore, 23% for Strange, 18% for Brooks and 7% for Pittman. It also found that Moore would win a hypothetical runoff against Strange by a 45 to 35 margin.

Polls conducted after the primary gave conflicting results. A poll of 515 GOP voters conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling of Baton Rouge, Louisiana between August 17 and 19 found Moore enjoying a 19% lead over Strange (51% to 32% with 17% undecided). Another telephone poll of 601 Republican voters reached between August 21 and 23 was commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund. It showed Moore ahead with 45% to Strange's 41% with a 4 point margin or error, which the PAC interpreted as a "dead heat".

Moore picked up endorsements from third-place finisher Mo Brooks, as well as former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and former White House assistant Seb Gorka. Strange's campaign was boosted by in-state appearances from President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. Former Vice President Joe Biden visited Birmingham to campaign on behalf of Doug Jones.

A debate between Moore and Strange at Samford University was planned by the Alabama Policy Institute for September 29. Moore pulled out because API president Caleb Crosby was also serving as treasurer of the Senate Leadership Fund, which was backing Strange. Moore called for a "mano a mano" debate with no moderator. Strange's campaign agreed to that format. The 60-minute Lincoln-Douglas style debate was held on September 21 at the RSA Activity Center in Montgomery with a timekeeper present to enforce a five-minute limit to each statement and rebuttal.

In the run-up to the special election, Moore was endorsed by Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky and Mike Lee of Utah.

Polls

Republican primary

Pollster Dates No. polled Moore Strange
JMC 8/17–19 515 51% 32%
VCR 8/21–23 601 45% 41%
Opinion-Savvy 8/22 494 50% 32%
Harper 8/24–26 600 47% 45%
SE Research 8/29–31 401 52% 36%
Emerson 9/8–9 355 40% 26%
VCR 9/9–10 604 41% 40%
JMC 9/16–17 355 47% 39%
Cygnal 9/23–24 996 52% 41%
Trafalgar 9/23–24 1073 57% 41%

General election

Pollster Dates No. polled Moore Jones
Opinion-Savvy 8/27–28 590 50% 44%
JMC Analytics 9/30–10/1 500 48% 40%
Cygnal 10/2-5 497 49% 41%
FOX News 10/14-16 801 42% 42%
Raycom 10/16 3,000 51% 40%
Raycom 11/7 2,200 51% 40%
Opinion-Savvy 11/9 515 46.4% 46%

References

  • Sharp, John (January 5, 2017) "No special election to replace Sessions; Bentley says move could save $16 million" al.com
  • Cason, Mike (April 18, 2017) "Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey moves U.S. Senate election to this year." The Birmingham News
  • Sharp, John (May 18, 2017) "Senate hopefuls attempt to ride Trump's popularity in Alabama." The Birmingham News
  • Koplowitz, Howard (June 10, 2017) "5 Senate contenders make their cases at Vestavia Hills candidates forum" The Birmingham News
  • Koplowitz, Howard (July 8, 2017) "Luther Strange, Roy Moore court support for Senate runs at Vestavia forum." The Birmingham News
  • Gattis, Paul (July 26, 2017) "Luther Strange leads in GOP Senate primary, poll shows." The Birmingham News
  • Journey, Rick (July 27, 2017) "Exclusive: New poll finds Strange and Moore in statistical tie for GOP Senate race." WBRC.com
  • Koplowitz, Howard (August 10, 2017) "Roy Moore leading Luther Strange by 8 points in Senate primary race: Poll." The Birmingham News
  • Gore, Leada (August 16, 2017) "Alabama Senate primary results: Moore, Strange for Republicans, Jones sweeps Democrats; What we know today." The Birmingham News
  • Sharp, John (August 17, 2017) "With Doug Jones, Alabama Democrats see potential for 'Mount Rushmore of political upsets'." The Birmingham News
  • Gattis, Paul (August 21, 2017) "Roy Moore has big lead on Luther Strange in Senate race, poll says." The Birmingham News
  • Koplowitz, Howard (August 24, 2017) "Roy Moore, Luther Strange in statistical dead heat in Senate race: Poll." The Birmingham News
  • Gattis, Paul (September 11, 2017) "Democrat Doug Jones in close Senate race with Roy Moore, Luther Strange, poll says." The Birmingham News
  • Koplowitz, Howard (September 13, 2017) "Roy Moore, Luther Strange agree to debate with no moderator." The Birmingham News
  • Gattis, Paul (September 15, 2017) "Senate Leadership Fund poll has Luther Strange, Roy Moore in tight race." The Birmingham News
  • Sharp, John (September 20, 2017) "Strange-Moore 'Lincoln-Douglas style' debate wades into rare political waters." The Birmingham News

External links

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