2017 U.S. Senate special election

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The 2017 U.S. Senate special election was a statewide special election held in order to fill the seat left vacant by Jeff Sessions' appointment as Attorney General of the United States in January 2017. Former U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama Doug Jones won the close general election as a Democrat, enjoying a boost in turnout credited to effective organization efforts, and to damaging accusations that his opponent, former Alabama Supreme Court chief justice Roy Moore, had engaged in sexual assault and misconduct with minors during his years as an Assistant District Attorney in Etowah County. Jones became the first Democratic U.S. Senator elected from Alabama since Richard Shelby was elected in 1992.

Background

When Governor Robert Bentley appointed Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange to Sessions' vacant seat, he announced that no special election would be held prior to the scheduled November 2018 general election. State Auditor Jim Zeigler and retired District Attorney Tommy Chapman filed a lawsuit against Bentley arguing that the State Constitution required a special election to be held "forthwith," and that 21 months did not meet that requirement.

After Bentley pleaded guilty to crimes relating to his use of campaign funds he was removed from office and succeeded by Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey. After some deliberation, she decided to schedule a special election for the earliest practical date. The Alabama State Finance Director estimated the cost of holding the elections at $15 million, spread over two fiscal years.

Party primaries were held on August 15, Statewide turnout for the primary was 18%. In Jefferson County, turnout was closer to 20%, with 21% of Shelby County voters appearing at the polls. In Walker County a sales tax referendum also appeared on the ballot on August 15. A Republican runoff between Roy Moore and Luther Strange was held on September 26. Moore won that ballot by a nearly ten point margin.

The special election between Jones and Moore took place on Tuesday, December 12. Overall turnout for the hotly-contested and highly-publicized election was higher than predicted, with 1,348,720 of Alabama's 3,321,853 voters (40.6%) casting ballots. Turnout was especially high among African-American, urban and suburban voters, with comparatively less participation in predominantly white, rural areas.

Moore declined to concede the election when the results were reported, citing outstanding provisional ballots and raising funds for a possible recount. Secretary of State John Merrill reported that there were not enough outstanding ballots to narrow the gap enough to trigger a recount. He certified the election in late December, allowing Jones to take his seat in early January 2018.

Primaries

Democratic

Republican

General election

Campaign

The Mid Alabama Republican Club hosted candidate forums at the Vestavia Hills Public Library on June 10 and July 8. Beretta, Brinson, Brooks, Gentile and Pittman participated in the first event, while Moore failed to appear. Moore did attend the second event, along with Strange, Peeples and Maxwell.

A poll of 500 likely Republican primary voters conducted on July 20-21 by Cygnal indicated that Strange was a heavy favorite with support from 33% of those polled, followed by Moore with 26% and Brooks with 16%. The private poll, commissioned by eight large businesses and associations, was released by Politico. A broader poll, conducted on July 24 by Raycom News Network and Strategy Research, reached 3,000 registered voters and recorded the responses of those saying they were likely to vote. Among those likely to vote in the Republican primary, 35% supported Strange, 33% supported Moore, and 16% supported Brooks. Of those saying they would vote in the Democratic primary, 49% expressed support for Kennedy and 28% for Jones.

An August 7 statewide telephone poll of 2,000 respondents was conducted by WALA-10 (Mobile) and Strategy Research. It indicated that Moore had support from 35% of Republican voters, followed by Strange (29%), Brooks (19%), Pittman (9%) and Maxwell (4%). Among Democratic voters, Kennedy polled at 40%, followed by Jones (30%), Boyd (9%) and Hansen (7%).

President Donald Trump tweeted his "complete and total endorsement" of Strange on August 8. A telephone poll of 502 Republican voters conducted on August 8-9 by Cygnal found that 31 percent would vote for Moore, 23% for Strange, 18% for Brooks and 7% for Pittman. It also found that Moore would win a hypothetical runoff against Strange by a 45 to 35 margin.

Polls conducted after the primary gave conflicting results. A poll of 515 GOP voters conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling of Baton Rouge, Louisiana between August 17 and 19 found Moore enjoying a 19% lead over Strange (51% to 32% with 17% undecided). Another telephone poll of 601 Republican voters reached between August 21 and 23 was commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund. It showed Moore ahead with 45% to Strange's 41% with a 4 point margin or error, which the PAC interpreted as a "dead heat".

Moore picked up endorsements from third-place finisher Mo Brooks, as well as former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and former White House assistant Seb Gorka. Strange's campaign was boosted by in-state appearances from President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. Former Vice President Joe Biden visited Birmingham to campaign on behalf of Doug Jones.

A debate between Moore and Strange at Samford University was planned by the Alabama Policy Institute for September 29. Moore pulled out because API president Caleb Crosby was also serving as treasurer of the Senate Leadership Fund, which was backing Strange. Moore called for a "mano a mano" debate with no moderator. Strange's campaign agreed to that format. The 60-minute Lincoln-Douglas style debate was held on September 21 at the RSA Activity Center in Montgomery with a timekeeper present to enforce a five-minute limit to each statement and rebuttal.

In the run-up to the special election, Moore was endorsed by Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky and Mike Lee of Utah. A month prior to the December general election, The Washington Post broke the story about Moore's involvement with underage girls during his time in the Etowah County District Attorney's office. Many Republican leaders in Congress and the Trump administration commented that if the allegations were true, that Moore was unfit for office and should withdraw from the campaign. Some, including John McCain and Mitt Romney, used no qualifiers. Alabama GOP leaders, on the other hand, questioned the report and excused the alleged activities as harmless. After a fifth victim gave a news conference to share her story of a violent assault when she was 16, Moore lost the support of Ted Cruz and earned stronger condemnations from GOP senators Mitch McConnell and Jeff Flake. On November 21 President Donald Trump criticized Jones while claiming that Moore's denials were sufficient for him. On December 3 he expressly endorsed Moore.

The accusations sparked discussion of write-in campaigns aimed at electing a more centrist and less controversial GOP candidate. Luther Strange, Jeff Sessions and David Carrington were all mentioned in that context, but chose not to announce any campaign. Carrington and Richard Shelby both announced that they would write in votes for people they considered better candidates. Ron Bishop campaigned on social media as a Libertarian alternative. In late November retired Marine Colonel and Tuscaloosa sculptor Lee Busby announced that he would campaign as a conservative write-in candidate, Auburn retail store owner Mac Watson campaigned as a "States Rights Federalist", and former Alabama A&M University Dean of Education Arlester McBride campaigned as an independent.

The Highway 31 Super PAC funded printed and broadcast advertisements across the state critical of Moore. Reporters identified the Democratic Party-aligned Senate Majority PAC as having funded those ads. Moore sued the Senate Majority PAC for defamation and was awarded $8.2 million in damages in an August 2022 trial.

In a March 2018 interview with The New York Times, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said, "in 2017 with the special election in Alabama, we deployed some new A.I. tools to identify fake accounts and false news, and we found a significant number of Macedonian accounts that were trying to spread false news, and were able to eliminate those."

Social media researcher Jonathon Morgan admitted in late 2018 that he had mimicked during the Senate special election some of the tactics his firm, New Knowledge, had documented as having been used by Russian agents during the 2016 presidential campaign. He created a "Conservative" Facebook page supporting Watson's write-in candidacy under false pretenses and purchased less than $10 of retweets on Twitter, amplifying reports that a large number of Russian "bots" were tweeting on behalf of Moore. After Morgan publicized the work, which he characterized as research and said was not intended to have a real influence in the election, Jones issued statements of anger about the deception and Facebook suspended his personal account. LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman apologized for his having funded American Engagement Technologies, which conducted the experiment under the name "Project Birmingham".

Polls

Republican primary

Pollster Dates No. polled Moore Strange
JMC 8/17–19 515 51% 32%
VCR 8/21–23 601 45% 41%
Opinion-Savvy 8/22 494 50% 32%
Harper 8/24–26 600 47% 45%
SE Research 8/29–31 401 52% 36%
Emerson 9/8–9 355 40% 26%
VCR 9/9–10 604 41% 40%
JMC 9/16–17 355 47% 39%
Cygnal 9/23–24 996 52% 41%
Trafalgar 9/23–24 1073 57% 41%

General election

Pollster Dates No. polled Moore Jones
Opinion-Savvy 8/27–28 590 50% 44%
JMC Analytics 9/30–10/1 500 48% 40%
Cygnal 10/2-5 497 49% 41%
FOX News 10/14-16 801 42% 42%
Raycom 10/16 3,000 51% 40%
Raycom 11/7 2,200 51% 40%
Opinion-Savvy 11/9 515 46.4% 46%
Gravis 11/10 478 48% 46%
JMC Analytics 11/9-11 575 42% 46%
Change Research 11/9-11 1,855 44.1% 39.6%
Emerson 11/9-11 600 55% 45%
FOX News 11/13-15 823 40% 49%
Big League-Gravis 11/14-15 628 42% 47%
Breitbart 11/18-20 11,641 46.4% 40.5%
Raycom 11/20 3,000 47% 45%
Emerson 11/25-27 500 53% 47%
Change Research 11/26-27 1,868 47% 42%
JMC Analytics 11/27-28 650 49% 44%
WaPo-Schar 11/27-30 749 47% 50%
Gravis 12/1-3 1,276 44% 48%
JMC Analytics 12/4 3,200 50% 43%
Trafalgar 12/6-7 1,419 51% 46%
Gravis 12/5-8 1,254 49% 45%
Emerson 12/7-9 600 53% 44%
FOX News 12/8-10 1,127 40% 50%

References

  • Sharp, John (January 5, 2017) "No special election to replace Sessions; Bentley says move could save $16 million" al.com
  • Cason, Mike (April 18, 2017) "Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey moves U.S. Senate election to this year." The Birmingham News
  • Sharp, John (May 18, 2017) "Senate hopefuls attempt to ride Trump's popularity in Alabama." The Birmingham News
  • Koplowitz, Howard (June 10, 2017) "5 Senate contenders make their cases at Vestavia Hills candidates forum" The Birmingham News
  • Koplowitz, Howard (July 8, 2017) "Luther Strange, Roy Moore court support for Senate runs at Vestavia forum." The Birmingham News
  • Gattis, Paul (July 26, 2017) "Luther Strange leads in GOP Senate primary, poll shows." The Birmingham News
  • Journey, Rick (July 27, 2017) "Exclusive: New poll finds Strange and Moore in statistical tie for GOP Senate race." WBRC.com
  • Koplowitz, Howard (August 10, 2017) "Roy Moore leading Luther Strange by 8 points in Senate primary race: Poll." The Birmingham News
  • Gore, Leada (August 16, 2017) "Alabama Senate primary results: Moore, Strange for Republicans, Jones sweeps Democrats; What we know today." The Birmingham News
  • Sharp, John (August 17, 2017) "With Doug Jones, Alabama Democrats see potential for 'Mount Rushmore of political upsets'." The Birmingham News
  • Gattis, Paul (August 21, 2017) "Roy Moore has big lead on Luther Strange in Senate race, poll says." The Birmingham News
  • Koplowitz, Howard (August 24, 2017) "Roy Moore, Luther Strange in statistical dead heat in Senate race: Poll." The Birmingham News
  • Gattis, Paul (September 11, 2017) "Democrat Doug Jones in close Senate race with Roy Moore, Luther Strange, poll says." The Birmingham News
  • Koplowitz, Howard (September 13, 2017) "Roy Moore, Luther Strange agree to debate with no moderator." The Birmingham News
  • Gattis, Paul (September 15, 2017) "Senate Leadership Fund poll has Luther Strange, Roy Moore in tight race." The Birmingham News
  • Sharp, John (September 20, 2017) "Strange-Moore 'Lincoln-Douglas style' debate wades into rare political waters." The Birmingham News
  • McCrummen, Stephanie (November 8, 2017) "Woman says Roy Moore initiated sexual encounter when she was 14, he was 32." The Washington Post
  • Diamond, Jeremy (November 21, 2017) "Trump all but endorses Roy Moore" CNN.com
  • Debro, Anita (December 7, 2017) "Doug Jones can win, but he needs Black voters to turnout." The Birmingham Times
  • Bloch, Matthew; Nate Cohn, Josh Katz & Jasmine Lee (December 12, 2017) "Alabama Election Results: Doug Jones Defeats Roy Moore in U.S. Senate Race." The New York Times
  • Cason, Mike (December 12, 2017) "Turnout exceeds expectations in Doug Jones win in Alabama Senate race." The Birmingham News
  • Gore, Leada (December 21, 2017) "Will Roy Moore concede? What happens if he doesn't?" The Birmingham News
  • Roose, Kevin & Sheera Frenkel (March 21, 2018) "Mark Zuckerberg’s Reckoning: ‘This Is a Major Trust Issue’." The New York Times
  • "Social media researcher admits to questionable tactics in 2017 Alabama Senate race." (December 18, 2018) The Washington Post/al.com
  • "Facebook suspends account of researcher who meddled in 2017 Alabama Senate race." (December 22, 2018) The Washington Post/al.com
  • Romm, Tony; Craig Timberg and Aaron C. Davis (December 26, 2018) "Billionaire Reid Hoffman apologizes for disinformation in Alabama senate race." The Washington Post/al.com
  • "Roy Moore awarded $8.2 million, jury rules Democratic super PAC defamed him in 2017 Senate race." (August 12, 2022) Associated Press/The Birmingham News

External links